Booted off the family tree?

The science or study of primitive societies and the nature of man.

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circumspice
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Booted off the family tree?

Post by circumspice » Sun May 12, 2019 2:44 pm

This study is almost sure to cause some wretched infighting & mudslinging. Almost everyone hates to have their pet theory proven wrong. Let the anthro wars begin... (or should I say resume?)

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 142452.htm
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope

Minimalist
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Re: Booted off the family tree?

Post by Minimalist » Tue May 14, 2019 8:24 am

"One can disagree about morphology and the different features of a fossil, but the level of confidence we can put in the mathematical and statistical analyses of the chronological data in this paper makes our argument a very strong one."
Math and stats, huh? Hmmm......
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.

-- George Carlin

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circumspice
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Re: Booted off the family tree?

Post by circumspice » Tue May 14, 2019 2:16 pm

Minimalist wrote:
"One can disagree about morphology and the different features of a fossil, but the level of confidence we can put in the mathematical and statistical analyses of the chronological data in this paper makes our argument a very strong one."
Math and stats, huh? Hmmm......


Yeah, they've been using statistics for analysis of probability of data sets for a while now... Bayesian statistics...

Bayesian statistics is a theory in the field of statistics based on the Bayesian interpretation of probability where probability expresses a degree of belief in an event, which can change as new information is gathered, rather than a fixed value based upon frequency or propensity.
Bayesian statistics - Wikipedia
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope

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circumspice
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Re: Booted off the family tree?

Post by circumspice » Tue May 14, 2019 2:22 pm

I think that Wikipedia worded the definition of Bayesian statistics poorly. They probably should have used the phrase "degree of confidence" rather than "degree of belief".
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope

kbs2244
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Re: Booted off the family tree?

Post by kbs2244 » Wed May 15, 2019 1:37 pm

Didn't we just have a discussion about this in another thread?

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Re: Booted off the family tree?

Post by Minimalist » Wed May 15, 2019 10:52 pm

I found Carrier's use of Bayes Theory to be an extreme annoyance in "On The Historicity of Jesus." The problem seems to be that math works great for math but when you have to assign arbitrary values to non-math problems the who thing seems pretty pointless.,
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.

-- George Carlin

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circumspice
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Re: Booted off the family tree?

Post by circumspice » Thu May 16, 2019 9:56 am

On this study, they didn't analyze who or what. Their target data was when... The 'when' can be as telling as the 'where' when you're dealing with something as fragmentary as hominid fossils.
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope

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Re: Booted off the family tree?

Post by Minimalist » Fri May 17, 2019 6:20 pm

I'd be curious to know what the margin of error is though. Even 10,000 years is a really long time historically if not geologically.
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.

-- George Carlin

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circumspice
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Re: Booted off the family tree?

Post by circumspice » Fri May 17, 2019 7:26 pm

Minimalist wrote:I'd be curious to know what the margin of error is though. Even 10,000 years is a really long time historically if not geologically.
Ask cogs, he'd probably know. Or at least know where to find the answer.
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope

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Re: Booted off the family tree?

Post by Minimalist » Sat May 18, 2019 4:08 pm

I'm sure he'll pass by eventually.
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.

-- George Carlin

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